Starting to live under the 50-day compared to previous rallies. Today we got the range expansion to the downside. I was thinking maybe we would get it yesterday, as I longed SQQQ but I was a bit too early to that trade.

What I did today

Sold 25% of MU, trailing the rest.

Roundtripped my entire VRT position for a small loss. Frustrating one.

Tried STX on small size and scratched it.

Tried WDC on small size and scratched it.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

This point I’m looking to be hands off in the market until we get clearer action in the index. Some stocks are still very strong, however, with a weak tape it’s very hard for these names to push out and close strong.

VRT was one I had at a really good average in with size, and round tripped the entire gain.

Starting to live under the 50-day compared to previous rallies. We could be setting up a pivot here in a higher low / higher high method. Or, the QQQ starts to weaken again and come to test the recent lows.

One thing that I have noticed is the strength of individual stocks yesterday and today. Stocks showing relative strength are important to keep note of because when the index does turn, these are generally the leaders of the upcoming cycle.

What I did today

Bought MU on the break out after it pulled back to the 20sma.

Bought VRT once it start to show signs of support with a very tight stop hence the average.

Tried LRCX and exited the trade once it was showing signs of weakness. Small loss / scratch trade.

Shorted the QQQ via SQQQ on a 5min orb. Got stopped out for a small win when we rallied back to vwap.

Cut the last of my IGV shares. Small win.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Some stocks are showing incredible amount of relative strength. The stocks that are the strongest are the ones that are trading on the upper right hand corner of a chart. There’s no reason to be looking to buy a HOOD or PLTR here given where they have gotten sold off to.

Strong bounce in stocks today, the reversion to the mean day.

Now that most stocks are pushing up or are close to declining moving averages, it will be important to see what happens when the index gets to its 50-day.

We are still in a chop area as the index continues to go sideways.

What I did today

IGV sold 1/4 of this to lock in profits and moving the rest of my shares to break even.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

There are a good amount of set ups I’m tracking. We will see what happens with the market getting close to its 50-day.

Strong bounce in stocks today where they are now reverting back to their mean.

Aside from maybe a 1-3 day bounce, there isn’t anything meaningful happening. Some stocks are rallying to their declining moving averages, just like the index, other stronger names like the optics, cruise lines, transports are continuing higher.

It’s a very small pocket of the market that is somewhat strong. The only issue I find during these times is once the index gets to rallying into their declining moving averages, those stocks start to encounter some friction.

Taking it day by day, if we stay in this sort of chop then it is easy to scale it down to meaningless size and try to get traction. If we push into the declining MA’s and start to roll back over then there’s a chance we may visit the 200d.

What I did today

Mean Reversion.

IREN was on watch for a potential mean reversion trade. It flushed right in the morning and used the first 5m bar break to enter half of my shares. Then added as the stock was being supported at vwap. Sold 2/3 once there was a 5m lower low intraday. Keeping the remaining 1/3 for a potential test of the 10/20 ma.

IGV is an ETF that has been beaten down during the pullback as there are fears AI is ‘eating SaaS’. Entered a bit late after it crossed vwap on half of my position, then added once it started working and saw it broke HOD. Stops LOD. Willing to add in the future.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Outside of that opportunity today, there isn’t much I’m looking forward to on executing. The main priority is to not draw the account down, and keep it healthy for the next bull run. Those are the times I experience less friction in swing longs. Still showing up every day to scan, manage my watch lists, and refine my edge.

The only real stock I’m willing to watch for a long is Sandisk. I think there is potential for a parabolic flag that is currently building in this stock. When something is this extended though and setting up to breakout, I typically want to be a lot quicker on the sell button to exit my shares as trying to trail this with an MA is irresponsible. If it doesn’t trigger and goes lower, then no harm no foul.

Gapped down and stayed heavy all day. Most stocks are very broken.

With underlying destruction like this, it’s best for me to step aside and let the market do it’s thing.

My current risk given the market environment: No trading.

What I did today

Nothing

Prints:

N/A

Equity + Holdings:

Haven’t really done anything in the markets which is why I haven’t posted. This kind of destruction we are witnessing could be the very beginning of a correction.

During these moments, I’ve gone back to my older conversations with a good trading friend of mine. After a correction, we’ve continuously have talked about “we should have just f****** waited”. It’s really that simple. However it is hard since it’s pretty easy to just put a trade on.

Best to take things easy, know what environment is the most favorable and wait for the correction to pass.

Gapped down and stayed heavy all day. Most stocks today had big pullbacks.

All moving averages are aligned. 10 > 20 > 50. The issue is that there is no separation in thes MA’s which generally means we are in chop.

10 is flat, 20, and 50ma are sloping up.

My current risk given the market environment: Half size - given we are in chop.

What I did today

Didn’t take any trades today. Was looking at potentially shorting SNDK however just thought it would be best to leave things alone.

Boy did I miss out on the GLD / SLV short yesterday into today. Both of them completely broke down today. The overnight Asia open was when it really started to sell off.

Prints:

N/A

Equity + Holdings:

MU pulled back a bit on me but still holding my shares from 350s. Other than that, not much to do, and don’t really see anything for next week. Might be a lot of consolidation ahead, so will be taking it slow.

Gapped down and got sold off. It recovered pretty well however a lot of stocks that broke out either revisited prior day lows, or reversed their move.

All moving averages are aligned. 10 > 20 > 50.

10, 20, and 50ma are sloping UP.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

Took profits today and got stopped out on 2 trades. Tried GLD short after the the initial dump - didn’t make any money there as it consolidated and chopped me up.

ASTS stopped out on it today from buy yesterday. Closed right at the high. Result of a volalitile environment.

PL same as ASTS. Didn’t move much after I got stopped out. Might need more time.

LUNR sold the rest of my position in this for a gain.

UGL this is were most of my losses were today. Tried to get short AFTER the morning dump and never really went lower.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Only frustration today was risking too much on GLD short via UGL. Tried it too many times and never really moved in my favor. Other than that, everything else was to plan. Good thing MU is still working as SNDK reported amazing earnings. Will continue to trail and be patient.

Down about 1.5% on the year due to back to back losses. Lots of year left. Need to be patient for the good period which can be right around the corner.

Gapped up again and is attempting to break out of this 3-4 month base.

All moving averages are aligned. 10 > 20 > 50.

10, 20, and 50ma are sloping UP.

If the QQQ breaks out and goes on a run, we will be entering a really good period for swing trading. Federal interest rate decision kept rates unchanged.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

Got hit on new gappers today. Entered more space stocks, took profit in LUNR.

Risk per trade notes — Got a bit too aggressive on gappers today and paid the price in them. My risk on each is 1%, however, I may reduce my risk to normal size which is 0.5% in a good environment, and 0.25% during a choppy market. My losses in gappers usually take me two steps back in progress. I’ll be making these adjustments starting tomorrow.

NXT reported record earnings and broke out of a 4 month base. Was a buyer as it was pulling back and got stopped out. My mistake in this stock is that it is not in theme, nor is a neglected stock to take it long.

PDYN with robotics picking up in theme, I was very interested in PDYN. I bought it after it looked like it was going to reclaim vwap, and got stopped out. One thing I should have looked at is all the supply on the left hand side. I was thinking it could have a good break out today, however, the best stocks that end up being great EPs will gap up above a big base.

ONDS similar story as PDYN. Tried it a few times actually and paid the price for it. The number 1 lesson on this one is that it is not neglected so should have been a no trade.

PL missed it yesterday and decided to get involved today as it reclaimed the range. Stops in at $27.

ASTS gapped up and bought it as it was breaking a small flag intraday. Almost shook me out intraday, but luckily did not get stopped out.

LUNR took my first partial and will be trailing the rest.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Even though I took some big losses today, my trailing positions have been outperforming and ended up green on the day. Letting my winners run is what I need to continue to do as it will significantly offset the losses. If I had reduced my gapper trades from 1% to 0.5% from the start of the year, I would be up even more. The 1% risk per trade will be used in certain situations where the stars align on a particular stock with good news, good chart, and volume. Outside of that a standard 0.5% is good enough.

QQQ

Gapped up and is attempting to break out of this 3-4 month base.

All moving averages are aligned. 10 > 20 > 50.

10, 20, and 50ma are sloping UP.

If the QQQ breaks out and goes on a run, we will be entering a really good period for swing trading.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

There hasn’t been much activity in my account. I tried SIDU + TMC last week (stopped for a loss), took a ZSL long to play the silver short (stopped for a gain), USAR yesterday (stopped for a loss), stopped out on PL RKLB trails yesterday - re-entered RKLB today. Charts + prints below…

Should have rebought PL today.

RKLB rebought it today.

Entered LUNR today.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Really good day for stocks depending on what you own. MU continues to be my biggest position and best acting as it’s in momentum mode. I’d like to trail this one with a longer term moving average if I get the chance to. Themes and groups of stocks still seem to be the best place to be involved: Space, AI Infra, Drones/Defence stocks

No one knows what is about to happen or going to happen in markets. Small pieces of news like this are forgotten months from now. It matters today given the context of where we are in the index. However, a few months or years from now, it will be a whole different situation.

In closing, what I can control is my position sizing, risk tolerance, and rules. Outside of that, I don’t have an edge on trying to predict what the president will do next. My job as a trader is to focus on themes, and stocks with thematic OR game changing news. That’s it.

Ok here’s the update after today.

QQQ

Gapped up and got bought up in the morning session. In the afternoon, the index was about to roll over, it even went red at some point until the news hit the tape:

That caused a flurry of buying across all stocks. The strongest names continued higher, or wicked off their moving averages.

The 10 is over the 20, but can change given the move down.

10 is sloping down, 20 and 50ma are flat.

This is an environment where being in the strongest groups is the only way to make progress. If there were no strong groups or themes, then it would be a no trade environment.

My current risk given the market environment: IF we get back over the 50, and there are good setups in strong themes - Full Size.

What I did today

Took partial profit, made some new trades.

MU was my biggest position in my portfolio and for good reason. It is the leading megacap stock that is in the highest demanding theme: Memory. I was able to get a price that was 1.2% away from my initial stop on Jan 16 which allowed me to get in 60% position. In these situations I’m a little quick to derisk which I did today, so I sold half of my shares and keeping the rest and will be using a moving average to trail the rest. Ideally I can use the 20 if it gets over my average.

SIDU tried this one as it was crossing over red to green. Quickly sold it for a small loss when it pulled back as I wanted it to work right away. Space Theme.

HUT I am currently bullish datacenter infrastructure stocks like HUT, APLD, RIOT, GLXY as they are all showing strength working up the right side of their bases. My first buy was shortly after the open, and quickly sold it for a small loss as it was pulling back sharply. I let it settle and bought it again as it crossed over vwap and yesterdays high.

I ended up getting stopped mid morning.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Things can always change on a dime. It’s worth being at the screen, or at least keeping a pulse on things by scanning and reviewing at the end of each day.

Stocks that are moving as a part of group are strong… Theme. Theme. Theme.

Gapped up and got bought up in the morning session. It is currently testing the 50ma.

The 10 is over the 20, but can change given the move down.

10 is sloping down, 20 and 50ma are flat.

This is an environment where being in the strongest groups is the only way to make progress. If there were no strong groups or themes, then it would be a no trade environment.

My current risk given the market environment: No trading, unless a hot theme like space/datacenter infra/drones or defence.

What I did today

Took partial profit, made some new trades.

MU was my biggest position in my portfolio and for good reason. It is the leading megacap stock that is in the highest demanding theme: Memory. I was able to get a price that was 1.2% away from my initial stop on Jan 16 which allowed me to get in 60% position. In these situations I’m a little quick to derisk which I did today, so I sold half of my shares and keeping the rest and will be using a moving average to trail the rest. Ideally I can use the 20 if it gets over my average.

SIDU tried this one as it was crossing over red to green. Quickly sold it for a small loss when it pulled back as I wanted it to work right away. Space Theme.

HUT I am currently bullish datacenter infrastructure stocks like HUT, APLD, RIOT, GLXY as they are all showing strength working up the right side of their bases. My first buy was shortly after the open, and quickly sold it for a small loss as it was pulling back sharply. I let it settle and bought it again as it crossed over vwap and yesterdays high.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Stocks that are moving as a part of group are strong… Theme. Theme. Theme.

Gapped down under the 10, 20, and 50ma.

The 10 is over the 20, but this will change soon.

10, 20, and 50ma are sloping down.

Regardless of how good the breadth readings are, the megacaps are bringing things down. This is an environment where money can easily be given back to the markets if not careful. This is not the time to be trying things multiple times, or at all.

My current risk given the market environment: No trading, unless a hot theme like space.

What I did today

No trades taken today. Really considered selling MU at the close though. Moved my stop close to my average, so if I take a loss on the trade it will be less than .25% loss.

Prints:

None for today.

Equity + Holdings:

QQQ

Has been chopping back and forth all month. The moving averages are aligned for a move higher. However, we haven’t gotten much movement as the megacaps have been pinned. Breadth has been great. Regardless of what the index is doing, it is a traders job to listen to individual / groups of stocks.

This weeks economic calendar

Stocks

There have been a lot of stocks making new highs as the index chops around. That’s where the focus should be. Staying away from previous leaders (e.g. HOOD, IREN, NBIS, etc.) and focusing on stocks that are trading on the upper right hand corner of my chart. Not saying IREN/NBIS/HOOD are trash.

SIDU space theme, probably the crappiest one of the bunch. They (shit names) do tend to make the biggest moves. Keeping it on watch.

ONDS pushed out of it’s base, and is consolidating. Has been part of the defense EO that Trump is pushing out. Waiting for a setup.

HUT probably the strongest btc miner. Had big news few weeks back. Didn’t like the setup on Friday. Will be watching to see if it gives me something clearer, or I’ll likely pass.

APLD similar thoughts to HUT above. Watching it for a clearer set up. 4-5 month base.

RIOT newer btc miner that had news with AMD on Friday. Will be watching it in the next few weeks for a clear set up of an MA.

—

Outside of those stocks, news-based episodic pivot trades are on watch.

Gap up on the index and closed down on the day.

The 10 is over the 20.

10 and 20ma are sloping up. The 50 is flat.

Another positive breadth reading today. Mega caps really pinning the index flat. Some pockets of strength in the market. Need to stay in tune with current themes, that’s where the highest EV is.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

RDW got stopped out on this from the previous day. Had too tight of a stop. 12% ADR can make big moves in either way intraday.

MU had news of breaking ground on their memory production facility in NY. Flagged on the daily. Took me two tries to get involved on the long side.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

The index gapped up and closed weak.

The 10 is over the 20.

10 is flat, 20 is sloping up. The 50 is flat.

Positive breadth. The gap up / gap down environment really making it tough.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

Got long and stopped out on 2 names, 1 scratch, 1 stuck.

LEU tried to get long and stopped out for a scratch / small win. Not looking to get long names still in bases. Closed weak.

ONDS got long and got stopped out later in the day when the market started to pull back. Keeping it on watch.

MU got long and got stopped out at lows. Keeping it on watch.

RDW in theme trying to break out today. Market is weak so it didn’t have the momentum. Keeping it overnight.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

The index gapped down and got supported at the 50ma.

The 10 is over the 20.

10 is flat, 20 is sloping up. The 50 is flat.

Another positive breadth reading today. Mega caps really pinning the index. Some pockets of strength in the market.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

No new trades.

Trailing RKLB PL

Prints: N/a for today.

Equity + Holdings:

Flat open for the index and no real momentum on either side.

The 10 is over the 20.

10 and 20ma are sloping up. The 50 is flat.

Another positive breadth reading today. Mega caps really pinning the index flat. Some pockets of strength in the market.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

No new trades.

Trailing RKLB PL

Prints: N/a for today.

Equity + Holdings:

The index gapped down over the weekend and got bought up today. It appears it is very close to breaking out of a vcp pattern.

The 10 is over the 20.

10 and 20ma are sloping up now. The 50 is flat.

Another positive breadth reading today. Could just be certain mega caps holding the index back from advancing. This can quickly change if we get participation from megacaps.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

No new trades.

Trailing RKLB PL

Prints: N/a for today.

Equity + Holdings:

The index tried to break out of it’s vcp pattern higher yesterday, closed weak, and today there was further weakness with tons of expectation breakers in growth names + themes.

The 10 is over the 20. First time we are seeing the slope of the 10 and 20 flatten / turn down. After yesterday’s b/o attempt, this is the reality of the chop we have been in. Given that info I’ll be scaling my size down. Even though I don’t see anything to do for tomorrow.

Another positive breadth reading today. Could just be certain mega caps holding the index back from advancing.

My current risk given the market environment: Half Size

What I did today

Got stopped on a trail + RIVN and AEVA.

HYMC stopped me out at my hard stop on the remaining half of my position. Glad was able to take some gains on the move up.

AEVA got stopped out on the morning flush, again. Think I’ll leave this one alone. 0/3 on this name.

RIVN strong day and gave it all back. Cut it before it turned into a full loss.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

Lots of stop outs past 2-3 days. I’m starting the year down 1%. Not bad all things considered. If the market was ripping with tons of stocks, and I was down 1%, I think I’d be a bit more frustrated. Given the fact that we’ve been chopping around, this is not a bad position to be in. We’ll see how the next few days play out.

The index tried to break out of it’s vcp pattern higher and closed weak.

The 10 is over the 20. The angle of the 10ma and 50ma are sloping higher, the 20ma is flat after today. This is the first signs of a potential move higher in the index, and certain stocks are also showing continuation higher which is good.

Another positive breadth reading today. Could just be certain mega caps holding the index back from advancing.

My current risk given the market environment: Full Size

What I did today

Got stopped on two positions.

AEVA got stopped out on the morning flush. Still trading pretty decent volume. Bought it back in the afternoon with a stop at lows. Inside day, if it takes out today’s high tmrw could see some momentum.

GEV stopped out at the close for a small loss as it closed under the 10/20.

Prints:

Equity + Holdings:

That’s all for today.